2005 WRAP-UP

Q & A WITH KEVIN GOLDSTEIN OF BASEBALL AMERICA

This is the first of several Q&A, interviews and Podcasts coming for the 2005 wrap-up. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball America is always very gracious with his time and willing to offer his knowledge on Oakland A's baseball. Apart from being good-natured, humorous and telling me I have good taste in music, someone I infinitely trust told me that Kevin is the smartest person he has met in baseball (which might have actually been an insult to everyone else in baseball...depends on how you look at things).

     Ken Macha's here today, gone today, here today episode leads to many, many questions.  Dave Hudgens was also their roaming hitting instructor at one time and is now out of the organization.  How will the recent changes in the A's management affect the farm system? By that I mean, how much interaction do the A's major league coaches have with the minor league players? Does such interaction happen only during spring training and/or fall instructional league?

     Not a ton. During the season, they're far too busy worrying about the major league team. They certainly receive in-depth daily updates on the performance of players in their minor league system.


     The tandem starting system has been abandoned and the A's have had serious pitching injuries the last two years (Ben Fritz, Shane Komine) not to mention questionable use (e.g., Windsor and Braden both under seemingly heavy workloads in Stockton before being shut down in Midland). And, with all this change could David Forst's be mentioned as a possible replacement as a GM in other organizations? Is Erik Kubota's name going to start being mentioned as a possibility for GM or higher front office positions in other organizations over the next few years?

    Wow. That's a rambling all over the board question. I'll answer it this way:

  1. Komine was another injury waiting to happen because of his amazing college workload. I don't think you can statistically prove overuse of Windsor and Braden. I think both of these guys were used pretty normally - they do rack up high innings counts, but they do it with few pitches.

  2. I think Forst and Kubota could one day end up in GM talks, but not yet.

     The A's draft well, even with their peculiarities. It looks like the A's again quickly singed a majority of their picks. Will Justin Smoak be the one that got away from the A's? What of the A's going after high schoolers; are they simply beefing up on players to trade later or are they really looking at a long term development strategy? Clifton Pennington looks to be capable of being a leadoff hitter for the A's. Is he destined to move from shortstop to second base or will the A's consider him elsewhere (centerfield)?

    Nobody can pound more questions into a single question than you, ZM. Thus, I am back to numbered lists.

  1. I don't think it's fair to characterize Smoak as the one that got away. He was generally considered a first-round talent, but everyone knew his bonus demands and that his chances of signing were very slim. They took a flyer on him, and it didn't work out, but it's not like they had a big shot at getting him anyway or lost anything by taking him. So not the one that got away, more like losing 10 bucks at the roulette table because you played a single number. The big payoff would have been nice, but not like it was some devastating loss.

  2. The A's taking high school players is just the A's being the A's.     They're not about on-base percentage and they're not about drafting college players, they're about finding market inefficiencies, and that's where they thought it was this year.     Both Lansford and Italiano were very good picks. Their long-term strategy is to find what kind of talent is undervalued in each draft - so it's going to change from year to year.

  3. Pennington is a shortstop, and a very good one at that. His maximum value to the team is as a shortstop, so there is absolutely no reason to move him until you are forced to. I see him as more of a classic two-hitter than a leadoff man.


     As far as player development, will the A's develop a corner outfielder capable of hitting 35 homeruns...at least while in an A's uniform anytime soon?  Nelson Cruz looks like he's ready to make the jump, for the Brewers.

    It is a system weakness. There are not a lot of big time power guys in the system. I still think Swisher could be a 30 home run guy in the bigs. As far as Cruz goes, I don't know of anybody he thinks he's going to be a big time player like that. He's good, but you're talking about a guy who will be 26 next year and struck out 133 times in 2005.


     If you lived in Sacramento, would you buy season tickets to the A's (Oakland), RiverCats (Sacramento) or the Ports (Stockton)?

    I work for Baseball America - I can get in for free! Seriously though, I'd do Stockton, but much of that is my bias as

(a) I love Class A baseball and

(b) I do our California League coverage for Daily Dish, Best Tools and League Top 20s, so I feel closer to that league.


     Where do the A's new collection of spare parts Matt Watson, Andrew Beattie, Jack Cust, Hiram Bocachica, Jermaine Clark fall in the A's pecking order?

    Well, like you said, those are spare parts, and I'm certain that a few of them are no longer under contract and will be six-year free agents. These are minor league veteran/major league fill-in guys that every organization has. Nothing that's going to make an impact at the big league level.


     Let's go over some of the players off the Prospect Lists. Javier Herrera was the MVP of the Northwest League in 2004, and was a moderate let down this year. I have heard there are some concerns about 'make up' with Herrera (not cosmetics). Can you elaborate? Can you also explain his brief promotion to Sacramento for a weekend early in the 2005 season?

    I'm still a big supporter of Herrera and his tools. He got off to a slow start because of the suspension, but once he got going, scouts were really impressed with him. He can hit, he can hit for power, he can run and he can throw. He's still raw certainly, but he has the highest upside of any player in the system. I've heard no makeup issues with him, I imagine anything you heard was probably related to the suspension for banned substances. As far as that goes, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. I agree with David Ortiz' assessment that many of the young Latin American players are dealing with a language barrier and often do not have a full understanding of what they're taking. As far as his brief Triple-A trip, there was some injuries at Sacramento, but they also wanted to bring in Swisher to rehab, so there was just no centerfielder there because of the numbers game. They thought he could handle it and thought he could be fill the job briefly, so there it was.


     Can you explain the Richard Pryor Robnett praise I hear? I've watched him and I just don't see what others see. I see far too many holes. There's some talent there, but I just didn't see the development from 2003-2005 I would have hoped.

    What people see is a tremendous amount of promise, based on his outstanding athleticism. I think you can be disappointed in his 2005 season, as he's still more raw than one would expect, but the upside there is very big. He's like a tech stock where you will lose your investment or it will pay off handsomely, but there's very little chance for something in between. The A's did work with his approach and swing in the second half, and there were some good results (14 HR, 43 RBIs in his last 60 G).


     What happened with Morrissey? He was an All Star in 2004, and then just fell off the map.

    Well, yeah, the comeback album had some nice songs, but he's never been able to rediscover the magic that was there with Johnny Marr. Oh wait, ADAM Morrissey, sorry. I'm not sure anything necessarily 'happened' with him, he was just constantly overrated by people who only know how to look at spreadsheets -- based on only a very good 2001 season in Low A. He's never really produced consistently since (including 2004), and he never found a defensive home. Another guy, who like that spare parts list, could be a six year free agent.


     The A's have a few minor leaguers coming back (or came back) from injury; Shane Komine (the Hawaiian Punch-Out), Landon Powell, Matt Allegra and Ben Fritz. What can we expect from them in 2006 and will Fritz move back to catcher?

    I've heard nothing on Fritz moving back to catcher. Komine is a huge favorite of mine, but I don't think he profiles as anything more than a reliever. Powell is a big question mark that I'll address when I begin my Oakland Top 30 research in about two weeks or less.


     The A's had a few players who made some noise; Daric Barton, Travis Buck, Jimmy Shull, Ramon Alvarado, Brad Kilby, Kevin Melillo, Dallas Braden, Jared Burton...and some others that flew in under the radar, Ron Flores, Casey Myers, Brian Stavisky, Dustin Majewski, Vasili Spanos, Jed Morris...are the A's on the right track to continue to develop players to fill their needs at the big league level.  And enough players attractive to other organizations in trades? It looked like in 2005 they hit a bit of a lull, but some of the players in the 2004 and 2005 draft are very promising.

    That first list is a strange combination of elite guys and very fringe guys, while the under the radar list has some players who definitely improved their stock (especially Majewski), and a lot of guys who, frankly, probably deserve to be under the radar. I do think the A's had some so-so drafts in recent time, but that both the '04 and '05 drafts will play a big role on the future of the system.


     Finally, the A's have new ownership that are, reportedly, willing to open up the budget to sign players. And the A's are also not losing any free agents that would suggest early round compensation. Will this hurt the A's in 3-4 years or has the system been replanted well enough after the harvest?

     I'm not sure hurt is the right term. The A's have had extra picks in the past, but now they're more on par with most of the other teams, as opposed to hampered by it. I think it does change ones philosophy when drafting, as your decision making process is different when you have two picks in the first two rounds as opposed to six.